KASHMIR IMBROGLIO

CLUELESS CENTRE;

WILY OMAR

Iftikhar Gilani

The central government seems to be groping in the dark to find the right response to the current uprising in Kashmir Valley, which has crossed 85 days and has consumed 69 young lives.

While Prime Minister Manmohan Singh appears to have gone into a shell after mouthing routine lines about economic package and political dialogue, home minister P Chidambaram looks clueless, and Congress President Sonia Gandhi seems bereft of ideas despite ascending to the throne for the fourth consecutive term to head one of the largest political parties in the world.

Interestingly, the current uprising started from Rafiabad region in north-Kashmir, which had, against all odds, voted overwhelmingly in November-December 2008 assembly elections (80 per cent turnout) braving guns and boycott calls. Though Kashmir watchers had been warning of a volcanic outburst in the absence of political initiatives and halting of dialogue process with Pakistan, they had little idea that a new wave of resentment will start from the region that was celebrated by analysts a year-and-half ago for rejecting separatism.

The biggest question in Srinagar is whether the chief minister will survive his full six-year term. His abject failure to check targeting of innocent youth by police and army men, his growing disconnect with the people, and his inability to calm the agitated masses and bring them to the negotiating table has already earned him the epithet of a ‘failed administrator’. The wily state bureaucracy too seems to be working against the chief minister's interest.

In the last week of April, this year, army informers had lured three village boys in the Rafiabad region to join as porters in the Rajputana Rifles, a regiment deployed at Macchil sector in northern-most Kupwara district. In order to win laurels and medals for checking infiltration and battling Laskhar-e-Toiba (LeT) terrorists, senior army officers branded these hapless porters as infiltrating terrorists and killed them in a fake encounter.

"We were promised employment and development, but we got body bags instead," said Engineer Rashid, MLA of nearby Langet assembly segment. As the hardline leader Syed Ali Geelani called for protests against these killings, an unending spiral of violence led to 69 deaths. Those who died were mostly in the age group of 14-19. Moderate face of separatism Mirwaiz Umar Farooq believes that the torch of freedom struggle has now been taken over by the new generation. "They are restless, impatient and will not be satisfied with mere promises and incremental progress," he said.

The pictures of denim-clad young boys opening shirts and daring security personal to shoot at them are alarming. Analysts and psychologists describe it as a disturbing trend both for India as well as Pakistan, which is already sitting on an edge. Further delay in a political initiative to find a widely acceptable solution to Kashmir problem may be disastrous.

Historically, an alliance of National Conference (NC) and Congress party has had disastrous result in Kashmir. Rajiv Gandhi-Farooq Abdullah accord of 1986, followed by alleged mass rigging in 1987 elections is widely believed to have been the single most important reason for the birth of militancy in Kashmir.

At the beginning of 2009, young Omar rode to power amidst hope and optimism as he was starting his innings with a clean slate. One-and-half year down the line, hopes have turned into despair.

The biggest question in Srinagar is whether the chief minister will survive his full six-year term. His abject failure to check targeting of innocent youth by police and army men, his growing disconnect with the people, and his inability to calm the agitated masses and bring them to the negotiating table has already earned him the epithet of a 'failed administrator'. The wily state bureaucracy too seems to be working against the chief minister's interest.

Omar Abdullah has had an inauspicious start as a chief minister. In January 2009, the first Cabinet meeting he presided over was called to declare state mourning and to condole the death of his uncle and former chief minister G M Shah. Two days later, troops shot a deaf and dumb villager in his neighbourhood. Troops claimed that the slain Abdul Rashid Rishi, 45, was planning a fidayeen attack. The allegations were later shown to be unfounded.

Call it short sightedness, political immaturity or New Delhi's heavy hand, Abdullah junior's two populist slogans of withdrawal of troops and revocation of draconian Armed Forces Special Powers Act (AFSPA) remained just that - slogans.

Army has made it clear that it would not reduce troop strength in Kashmir even if violence came down. The AFSPA revocation was also vehemently opposed by everyone ranging from Army to the main opposition party, BJP. Ultimately, New Delhi has had to abandon any plans to amend AFSPA, leave alone revoking it.

On phased withdrawal of CRPF, Omar himself seemed to have backtracked, presumably under New Delhi's pressure. His assurances regarding securing withdrawal were followed by a statement that overnight replacement of CRPF by police was not possible.

But Omar's failure to deliver on his promises is not the biggest problem he is facing at the moment. The bigger problem for the chief minister is that the grand old party of Kashmir, the National Conference - is fast loosing its grip over the state.

Omar's alliance partner, Congress, is now openly questioning the functioning of the chief minister. Congress general secretary in charge of Jammu and Kashmir and Union minister Prithviraj Chavan has expressed his party's displeasure over the chief minister's frequent trips to Delhi and elsewhere. "We are concerned that he does not sit in his office and perform his duties as expected. Omar must change his style of functioning," he said. Other senior Congress leaders too expressed concern over what they termed as "childish and sentimental" attitude of junior Abdullah.

They point out at his Ladakh trip with his family when Srinagar was on fire. And from Ladakh, instead of returning to Srinagar, he drove with his family to Kulu-Manali. They even talk about the state helicopter making nine sorties to airlift relatives of Payal Singh, wife of the Chief Minister, for visiting Ladakh monasteries.

Omar Abdullah may be an ideal nationalist and secular Muslim show boy for Delhi, because he is born to an English mother and is married to a Sikh. His sister is married to a Hindu, Sachin Pilot, a Union minister. But even after having spent 10 years in politics, he can not speak Kashmiri, and, therefore, can not effectively communicate with his cadres and local people.

Omar's request for calling in Army without consulting the coalition partner was found highly objectionable by the Congress. A day before requisitioning the army, Omar and his law minister had criticised the security forces. Omar's decision to seek resignation of Jammu and Kashmir Bank chairman Haseeb Drabu has become the latest irritant between him and the Congress party. He has further annoyed the alliance partner by sending a panel of four names to Reserve Bank of India (RBI) without consulting the Congress.

People close to Omar boast that he had unmatched access in the power corridors of Delhi. The kind of access that no chief minister of Jammu and Kashmir ever enjoyed. They, therefore, believe that he is best suited to settle the issue of Kashmir. They claim that Congress president has promised him every support even at the cost of her own party’s interest in the state. But all this support seems to have gone waste

In spite of the mess Omar has made of Kashmir, the Congress high command does not favour taking over the reins of power directly in its hands in Srinagar. The Prime Minister feels that a local partner leading the government in Jammu and Kashmir would act as a buffer between Srinagar and New Delhi. The party still believes that the Amarnath shrine controversy raked up during Congress government led by Ghulam Nabi Azad in 2008 dented the party's images and helped the BJP recover in Jammu region.

Hardline leader Syed Ali Geelani's appeal for peaceful protests and his five-point peace formula may have given a much-needed respite to the government. But New Delhi does not seem to be utilizing this window of opportunity.

Serious efforts need to be made to infuse confidence in the state administration, which is unlikely to happen under the present chief minister.

This must be followed by a political initiative. Delhi must come up with out-of-box proposals that will appeal to a wide section of population in Jammu and Kashmir. This should be done without delay and without wasting time in the hope that the problem will disappear on its own. Kashmir's young and restive generation would be a perpetual national security problem unless the core issues are addressed.

New Delhi, however, does not seem ready to let in fresh air. Congress president, who has been taking keen interest in issues of governance through her hyper-active National Advisory Council which she heads, has shown little interest in finding a solution to the Kashmir issue. Congress circles say that she cuts short any discussion on Kashmir and does not want to hear any complaints against Omar Abdullah.

At a recent meeting of the Congress Working Committee, when home minister Chidambaram was making a point asking his party colleagues to look beyond Omar Abdullah, the Congress president seemed to be getting restless.

Chidambaram unequivocally stated that party may have to review its support for Omar as no amount of force sent to Kashmir to quell disturbances would be effective in absence of an effective administration. There were suggestions that Omar be replaced with some other leader from National Conference. But the Congress president's lack of interest in the issue resulted in no decision being taken on it.

With Sonia Gandhi showing no interest in addressing the Kashmir issue, the Prime Minister has started soft-pedaling on this front. Top government sources reveal that when results of Jammu and Kashmir assembly elections were declared, the Prime Minister had advocated for a tie-up with the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP). The party general secretary in charge of J&K had supported the idea. But they were shocked to learn that Sachin Pilot had sewed up a deal between number 10, Janpath and the Abdullahs to anoint Omar as the head of next government.

People close to Omar boast that he had unmatched access in the power corridors of Delhi. The kind of access no chief minister of Jammu and Kashmir has enjoyed in the past. They, therefore, believe that he is best suited to settle the issue of Kashmir. They claim that Congress president has promised him every support even at the cost of her own party's interest in the state.

Agreeing that Omar had an unrestricted access in the corridors of power in Delhi, Congress circles say, he has received support from the Congress high command and the government which even the Congress chief ministers do not enjoy.

Past chief ministers or prime ministers from Khawja Shamsuddin to Farooq Abdullah have been shown the door for even minor follies. On the advice of B N Mulick, then chief of Intelligence Bureau, then Prime Minister Jawaharlal Nehru packed Bakhshi out of Kashmir politics following holy relic agitation.

Now with scores of youth losing their lives, some here believe it is high time to pack Omar out of Kashmir and look for some G M Sadiq, to pave the way for Hurriayat to get engaged in a serious dialogue. Sadiq had provided a way for the release of Sheikh Mohamamd Abdullah and his sojourn to Pakistan in 1964.

The writer is Delhi Bureau Chief of Kashmir Times.