Kashmir :

Where to, from here

Maloy Krishna Dhar

India has the onerous task of fighting two wars in Kashmir: the war of guns and war of minds. Since 1948 the war of guns and international diplomatic shenanigans has dominated the scenario. Very little has been done to prevent the psy-war thrust from Pakistan and launch own psy-war technology to win the hearts of the people of Kashmir. Money has been spent but impoverisation has not been removed. Some rich pockets have become richer, most pockets became leaner. Galaxies of Governors, Chief Ministers, intelligence barons have not paid balanced attention to the tasks of fighting Pakistan's proxy war and economic growth of the Kashmiri people.

Inside Kashmir, it is possible to intensify security operations. Militarily it is not impossible to make a dent on the situation by making precision strike against the terrorist camps in PoK and Punjab. India has the technology to gather intelligence data about these camps. The moot point is can India be determined to launch Israel and US like surprise strikes? There are risks of a limited war between India and Pakistan that may not turn nuclear. Would the USA support India against the known proclivity of China and Pakistan to internationalize the issue? India does not have UAV drones to mount precision attack. Conventional advanced bombers and warhorses are not suitable for such attack. This would require a comprehensive policy. Some political parties, which depend on Muslim vote, may not agree for a Bangladesh like operation. However, forward proactive policy remains the best option provided the political decision makers are committed to the cause and the armed forces are given appropriate logistics and mandate.

In the face of such impasse India can at best do firefighting in Kashmir. Prolonged firefighting generates side effects. Such operations alienate the people, allegation of human rights violation are levelled on flimsiest ground. Often excesses are committed by security personnel under conditions of severe stress. This is an intractable situation in an operational theatre. The militants try to terrorize the people to submission and in the process attack vulnerable targets. The security forces are compelled to operate in the populated villages that create hatred and aversion amongst the people. A defensive anti-guerrilla warfare suffers from such inbuilt disadvantages. However, record of the Indian security forces is on the brighter side than any isolated dark spots that are left by rare acts of callousness.

The Prime Minister's response appears to be spasmodic and ineffective, and the state administration is paralysed. The Chief Minister and his Cabinet colleagues have no contact with the people. The youth of J&K are keen to have education and job but their immediate concern is efficient functioning of the government, less corruption, lesser excesses by the security forces, observance of human rights, punishment to the erring police officers and a visible action against police and the administrative establishment.

This year Pakistan did not succeed in infiltrating many terrorists. They had therefore, chosen a new strategy; shuffling certain separatist parties deftly for building up people's anger, infiltrating few terrorists amongst the mob, financing the separatists groups for prolonged public agitation and turn certain areas of Kashmir ungovernable. The identified separatist parties are Hurriyat Conference (Syed Ali Shah Gilani), Dukhtaran-e-Millat (Asiya Andrabi-her husband undergoing life sentence for murder of H. N. Wanchoo, human rights activist), and Jamait-e-Islami etc. The PDP, a marginally separatist party has also joined hands with the ardent followers of Pakistan. She urges tripartite solution-India, Pakistan and the Kashmiris. Within last two months Pakistan has reportedly spent nearly three crore to finance the stone pelting youths and their group leaders. In the chain reaction nearly 50 people have been killed. While these parties have gained prominence the mainstream parties seem to have lost relevance. The Chief Minister and his cabinet colleagues have not been able to contact the masses and take measures to pacify the people. The anti-India and pro-azadi movement has been given a new shape and new players have been inducted. In addition to terrorist action it has been converted to a seemingly mass movement. The youth are at the forefront. It is a pity that Indian intelligence could not gather any whiff of such mood change of the people.

The Prime Minister's address appears to be spasmodic and ineffective. It contained proposals like: appointment of a committee under C. Rangarajan for job generation, autonomy within the four walls of the constitution, early local body polls and considering removal of the Armed Forces Special Power Act etc.

The PM's address has been rejected by Gilani, Andrabi and Mehbooba Mufti declined to attend. Enquiries with local moderate leaders indicate that the address has not impressed the people of the valley. The youth were keen to have education and job but were more concerned with efficient functioning of the government, less corruption, lesser excesses by the security forces, observance of human rights, punishment to the erring police officers etc. They demand some visible action against police and the administrative establishment. Pakistan, on the other hand is still controlling the separatist parties, funding them and preparing the youth for Sahadat (suicide bomber). The situation may worsen unless the government of India goes beyond job generation programme. Pakistan has succeeded to excite the youths so much that they declined to listen to Syed Gilani and Syed Salahuddin.

The Chief Minister and his cabinet colleagues have no approach to the common people. They are unable to communicate with the villagers and the youth. It appears that political will of the leaders have collapsed and the administration is paralyzed.

People allege that corruption in public offices has affected the common people adversely. No job can be done without paying the local officers and political leaders. Even for agricultural loan and loans for fruit orchards are available against a premium cut. High cost of implements, pesticide and other inputs has impeded agricultural growth. On top of it the campaign for potato cultivation and cultivation of green vegetables has not been well accepted by villagers. Crop insurance against adverse weather is not available as yet. Introduction of terrace cultivation with adequate irrigation facility is yet to pick up in the lower reach hill areas.

Because of lack of industrial activity and other job opportunities the youth mostly remain unemployed and some of them migrate to other states for running carpet and handloom business. The handloom and handicraft industry are in shambles because of high cost of inputs and paucity of subsidy and grant. There is high potential for sheep breeding and wool harvesting industry, poultry and dairy projects. If properly encouraged by importing high yielding cows and introducing mechanized process Kashmir can emerge as the cheese capital of India. The NABARD has recently opened a one-man office in Srinagar which is neither in a position to conceive projects conducive to Kashmir and Jammu region and offering financial assistance. Economic and administrative neglect has also disappointed the surrendered militants as they have no means of viable livelihood. The degree of disillusionment is on the rise.

Talks with common Kashmiris indicate that they are tired of continuous military operations and violation of human rights. Security of life, women and property are main concerns. A good percentage of them understand the catch 22 situation created by Pakistan sponsored proxy war, jihad, India's law and order response. They pine for peace, stability, and economic advancement. They want to live with dignity. The developmental administration has failed the state almost in every sector. The emphasis of the state and the central administration should be on the battle of winning over hearts of the people. Hopefully, multipronged offensive and defensive military actions should accompany by sustained and corruption free developmental activities. War for winning the heart of the people is more important. A new approach is necessary to go beyond the present impasse. New Delhi has not understood the imperatives of the explosive moments.

Maloy Krishna Dhar joined the Indian Police Service in 1964. He served the Intelligence Bureau for 30 years.