Countdown to the Presidency

Even as the Uttar Pradesh elections are set to ‘decide' who gets to sit on the top chair at Raisina Hill, all the parties are busy chalking out their respective strategies. And not everything is as aboveboard and impeccableas one could imagine the selection of the President of India might be: there are many factors that go into his or her making.

By Sanjeev Acharya

Uttar Pradesh has always been the epicentre of Indian politics, with local events influencing the national scenario. Once again, it seems that the result of the forthcoming Assembly elections in the state will have an impact on another election that is ostensibly above the beady-eyed scheming and conniving of politics-as-usual—that of the President of India.

The value of the votes of the 403 legislators of the UP Assembly is significantly more than that of any other state. And whoever comes to power in UP will play a major role in the delivering the answer to the crore-rupee question of who will replace Dr Avul Pakir Jainulabedin Abdul Kalam.

The 11th President of India is due to retire on July 25, 2007; already, more than a dozen names are doing rounds in the political corridors of Delhi. The race has begun for the topmost Constitutional post. The list of contenders ranges from the always-hopeful Dr Karan Singh to first-timers like faithful Gandhi family retainer Motilal Vora to the never-say-retire Arjun Singh, Left stalwart Somnath Chatterjee and Bhairon Singh Shekhawat who, in his past five years as vice-president, has been able to temper his saffron hue into a more neutral beige.

Queering the pitch is a group of opinion-makers that is beginning to coalesce support for a second term for the present incumbent. Of course, the ultimate dark horse, whose name will whip all punters into frenzy, is none other than former prime minister Atal Behari Vajpayee. The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), it is rumoured, is keen that the moderate face of the Parivar be kicked upstairs to the house on Raisina Hill, if only to make space for the jousting that will determine the party's official candidate for the prime ministership. However, Rashtrapati Bhawan will get its second bachelor, albeit perhaps more bon vivant, occupant only if Vajpayee can be persuaded to retire from active politics.

The current incumbent, Dr Kalam, was chosen as the presidential candidate by the then ruling National Democratic Alliance (NDA). The Vajpayee government wanted to cash in on the Pokharan nuclear test and Dr Kalam, as the “father” of the Indian missile programme, became the hot choice for the President's post. Their second reason for selecting Dr Kalam was to assuage the sentiments of the Muslim community, which had been ravaged by the post-Godhra riots in Gujarat. The Left parties opposed his candidature as part of their continuing stance against the ‘communal' BJP and they fielded Colonel Lakshmi Saghal of Indian National Army fame as their candidate. However the ‘secular' Mulayam Singh-led Samajwadi Party pooled in their numbers with the NDA, and not only did Dr. A P J Abdul Kalam defeat Lakshmi Sahgal with a comfortably large margin but the ruling alliance also managed to get their candidate, Bhairon Singh Shekhawat, elected as vice-president. This masterstroke was the brainchild of the BJP's spin-meister, the late Pramod Mahajan.

Now, after the defeat of Congress governments in Punjab and Uttaranchal, the arithmetic of the Presidential election has changed. The Congress-led United Progressive Alliance (UPA) cannot impose its choice of candidate as the numbers game is not in its favour. A simple calculation of the value of the votes of elected members of the state Legislative Assemblies and both Houses of Parliament reveals that it will not be smooth sailing for the UPA to get its candidate elected. Bihar, Chhattisgarh, Gujarat, Jharkhand, Karnataka, Madhya Pradesh, Orissa, Punjab, Rajasthan and Uttaranchal are ruled by the NDA, where they will obviously have the upper hand in the Electoral College for the election of the President. Even though the UPA and its allies are in power in states like Andhra Pradesh, Arunachal Pradesh, Assam, Haryana, Himachal Pradesh, Jammu and Kashmir, Kerala, Maharashtra, Manipur, Meghalaya, Mizoram, Nagaland, Sikkim, Tamil Nadu, Tripura, West Bengal, Delhi and Pondicherry, the NDA still has the sheer numbers. This is why all eyes are focused on the forthcoming Assembly elections in Uttar Pradesh: the state, with 403 Assembly seats, has highest value of votes (83,824) in the Presidential election.

However, while it is true that the party that wins the largest number of seats in UP will definitely have the swing vote in the Presidential election, the choice of which way to swing the vote will not be an easy one.

Consider the possible choices that Mulayam Singh will have to face: the claimants to his votes will be the Left parties, especially the Communist Party of India (Marxist), which in addition to its role as the secular vaguard has lately positioned itself as the protector of Mulayam Singh. Considering their strong opposition to the recent moves by the UPA government to impose President's Rule in UP, the CPI (M) might be justified in thinking that it has the right of first refusal to Mulayam Singh's share in the Electoral College. It is keeping this equation in mind that the Left is calculating the chances of their potential candidate Lok Sabha speaker Somnath Chatterjee for the post of President. However, political arithmetic has its own logic. The Left equation will be left unbalanced if the BJP is to field Bhairon Singh Shekhawat. Both Mulayam Singh and Amar Singh are extremely close to Shekhawat, and might find it difficult to support Chatterjee if Shekhawat decides to call in past favours.

If the Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) comes to power on its own in UP, Mayawati will undoubtedly be a key player in the selection of candidates as well as the election of the President. The BSP is not contesting the UP elections in coalition with any other party, so her options for any future alliance are open. In exchange for her support, Mayawati will ask for a say in the selection of the candidate. This is why the Congress is considering fielding Sushil Kumar Shinde: he is a Dalit leader and will be able to attract the support of the BSP. In the event that Mayawati does not get a clear-cut majority, she can join hands with any other party, including the BJP and the Congress, to form the government. However it is more likely that she would prefer to form the government with outside support. This, again, tilts the scales in favour of Shinde as the official candidate of the UPA.

Meanwhile, in Delhi, an informal exercise in both the UPA and the NDA to zero in for the official candidate has already begun. The buzz in Congress circles is that Union Minister Sushil Kumar Shinde is the dark horse. The Dalit leader from Maharashtra is first choice of Congress president Sonia Gandhi. She fielded him as vice-president candidate in last election when he lost to Bhairon Singh Shekhawat. This time, Mayawati may support him as he belongs to the Scheduled Castes. The other names in consideration are those of Arjun Singh and Dr Karan Singh. Congress insiders say that a senior leader like Arjun Singh can be selected. Although he is not very active as Union minister due to his deteriorating health, he can still garner the support of the Left parties in his favour. Another senior leader who would have been a potential Congress candidate if the Congress had not been defeated in Uttaranchal is N D Tiwari. Now, he is bereft of serious backers in Delhi.

Karan Singh has been hectically lobbying for the post for the last several years. By strategically resigning as president of the India International Centre when it denied membership to Lalu Prasad Yadav, he has been able to win over the Bihari leader in addition to some perennial backers in the Congress party. The Left parties, however, would not be inclined to favour his candidacy as he is also a very active Hindu leader and has maintained good relations with the BJP leaders. The Congress has Motilal Vora and Mahaveer Prasada as probable names for the vice-president's post. Vora has long been a trusted supporter of the Gandhi family and has served as UP governor. In his current position as the treasurer of the Congress party, he is very powerful in the party hierarchy and many leaders would like to see him moved out of the All-India Congress Committee.

The Left, it is very clear, is keen to capture the top Constitutional post through their candidate, Somnath Chaterjee. However, past incidents in Parliament have shown that the NDA, especially the BJP, is strongly opposed to his handling of the house. They will do all they can to spoil his chances.

In the NDA camp, rumours and covert efforts could be replacing strategic planning. Efforts are under way to make former prime minister Atal Behari Vajpayee the consensus choice for the 12th President of India. This move is being reportedly floated from the L K Advani camp, which believes that until Vajpayee retires from active politics, Advani can never dream of becoming prime minister. Sources say that the second reason for creating an atmosphere that calls for Vajpayee's candidacy is to counter the support for Bhairon Singh Shekhawat, who has been emerging as a natural choice for the post within the BJP. Shekhawat has long been a thorn in Advani's side and with Vajpayee as the official candidate of the party, sources in the Advani camp believe that Shekhawat will fall into obscurity once his term as vice-president is over.

If Vajpayee's name is formalised as a candidate for the presidency, it will be the first time in Indian history that a former prime minister might also become President. But it all depends on Vajpayee himself, whether he would like to actually retire from active politics or not. Until then, Shekhawat is the most likely candidate. His chances are considered to be particularly good as it is believed that he can manage to win support from Sharad Pawar, Mulayam Singh Yadav as well as Jayalalitha, in addition to the other NDA partners. In that event, he could be a winning candidate.

Najma Heptullah is an aspirant for the post that Shekhawat will vacate. She may contest as a vice-presidential candidate if the NDA partners support her. Some quarters in the BJP are pushing the name of P C Alexander, but there are not many supporters for his candidacy within the NDA.

All discussions and strategies will take final shape only after the Uttar Pradesh elections.