India-China-Russia Troika:
Is It Possible?

Increasing bilateral trade driven by dramatic economic growth, historic ties between the three countries, a common dynamic in their evolving relationship with the USA and mutual security issues can lead to the birth of a formidable new partnership on the world stage. Something that America may not be too happy to see.

By Suvrokamal Dutta

The much talked about India-China-Russia axis could change the contours of the geo-political-strategic positioning and relationship of countries in the Asia-Pacific and might well give sleepless nights to the West.

India's relationship with China has been an edgy one but the ice was broken during the visit of late prime minister Rajiv Gandhi. The warming ties were further strengthened with the visit of Atal Behari Vajpayee.

Bilateral trade between the two Asian giants is perhaps the best barometer of judging their growing friendship. This trade set a new record, touching $13.6 billion in 2004, with India enjoying a comfortable surplus of $1.75 billion. The latest Chinese customs statistics indicate that India-China annual trade for 2004 increased 79% over the total trade volume of 2003.

Analysts say this indicates a huge potential between the two fastest growing economies of Asia and the world. During the January-December period of 2004, Indian exports to China grew by 80.5% to reach $7.68 billion. Meanwhile, India's imports from China registered 77.2% year-on-year growth to hit $5.93 billion. The trade balance for the year stood in India's favour at $1.75 billion.
With such huge economic benefits, it is quite natural for both countries to move ahead and it is with this rationale that both are trying to expand their relationship in a multi- faceted manner.

A change of regime in New Delhi in 2004 didn't shift the focus of India-China ties but in fact, it expanded them. The recent defence pact between the two proves this. Many eyebrows were raised in the global diplomatic circles when this agreement was signed during a five-day visit to China by the then defence minister, Pranab Mukherjee.

The pact "provides a formal basis for the defence and military exchanges that have been taking place between the two countries in the last few years". During his visit, Mukherjee also visited military bases in Beijing and Shanghai and the Beijing Aerospace Command and Control Centre.
Mukherjee recently revisited China as the foreign minister to attend the third trilateral summit of India, China and Russia. The expectations this time were very high. Already unconfirmed reports say both India and China are on the verge of solving all the issues including the volatile border issue. What is also significant is the five-day visit of UPA chairperson Sonia Gandhi to China at the invitation of the Chinese President. All these developments show a very positive trend.

With India having age-old historic ties with Russia based on solid foundations, the emergence of warmer ties with China means a lot for this region. Already China and Russia have solved their long-standing border disputes amicably with mutual respect and trust for each other.

Sino-Russian trade is quite robust and is increasing. In 2003-04, the annual trade between China and Russia was to the tune of $5 billion which is a very good share in any country's annual trade. With India having her maximum defence and military trade with Russia which contributes
70 percent of India's defence needs, greater cooperation between the three countries would assume great significance in the future.

Russia's inability to impede the eastward expansion of NATO and its frustration over NATO's unilateral military action in Kosovo has forced it to seek closer strategic understanding with China and India.

Yevgeny Primakov of Russia was the first person to talk about a "strategic triangle" between Russia, China, and India which might still take time to materialise but it can not be ruled out.
It is a fact that each of these countries is involved in a somewhat similar dynamics. Each is consolidating its relationship with the others, while also expanding its relations with the United
States. In terms of strategic payoffs, this partnership will yield them, at the least, enhanced benefits
of bilateral and trilateral cooperation with each other and, at a maximum, it can serve to neutralise American influence in the Asia-pacific region.

This potential partnership could also be the blueprint for the next Cold War and poses a threat
that could affect the lives of everyone in the United States in a significant way and the United States is quite itchy about the unfolding Tri-lateral tie.

During President Putin's visit to New Delhi in December 2003, a Russian defence deal of multi-billion dollars was signed under which IL-78 Flight Refuelling aircraft, Aircraft Carrier Admiral Gorshkov, IL-78 FRAs would be given to India by Russia.

Under this agreement Russia would also sell to India the MiG-29K fighter aircraft for Admiral Gorshkov besides the sale and joint production of submarines and frigates.

During his recent visit to Moscow, Pranab Mukherjee had detailed discussions with Russian officials about many bilateral and strategic issues including the Turkmenistan oil pipeline issue and the Indo-U.S. nuclear deal. The response of the Russian side was quite positive on both the issues including an assurance from Russia of all the help India may need at the IAEA and the NSG.
During the recent visit of Prime Minister Manmohan Singh several agreements were signed including four on nuclear energy. Both sides also agreed to increase bilateral trade to three-fourth levels from the present.

China and Russia are also cooperating on railway links and oil pipelines through Central Asia connecting the Caspian Sea with the Middle East and Europe. Russia has also shown keen interest on the India-Iran pipeline project. Chances of the three countries joining hands on such common issues of mutual interest in future can not be ruled out.

American presence in Central Asia, Afghanistan and in the former Soviet Republics like Georgia and Ukraine has hastened this process further. The way things are unfolding in Central Asia, the official acknowledgement of the "troika" or its official formation can not be ruled out. Such a "troika" is also required for this region looking into its strategic and economic location.