The way the future was

Arthur C Clarke — visionary, science fiction father figure, and inventor of the geostationary satellite — was asked questions about what he thought the future might hold. He drops a lot of surprises, and an equal number of bricks.

By Kajal Basu

The 21st century, or the new millennium, or — if you're a certified doomsayer — the last millennium, flummoxed everyone with its impetuous and improbable crossover from arguably the worst century human history has known so far. Admitted, though, that the 20th century was also one of inexorable progress, particularly in the sciences. In 1891 German engineer Otto Lilienthal began experimenting with hang-gliders and within a short span of 12 years the first powered flight by the Wright brothers ushered in the age of air transport. In 1945, the venerable Arthur C Clarke in his article "Extra-terrestrial Relays" in the British magazine, Wireless World, spoke of a world ringed with communications satellites. (Decades later, Clarke said, half-mockingly, that had he then patented his idea, he might just have been the richest man in the world today.) Clarke's article posited the fundamentals behind deploying artificial satellites in geostationary orbits to relay radio signals.

Moreover, the absurd brouhaha over the millennium bug, which landed the world in a binary mess, remained just that — ballyhoo. What we had, instead, was another world-changer, the World Wide Web, a "secret" US military intra service network that morphed into the global Internet. And now the Net is poised, with a steely equipoise that leaves the synod that created it cold and shivery, on the edge of artificial intelligence, and, eventually, even sentience.Since none of this was anticipated, it might be relevant to ask now what precisely the human race was prepared for when the previous millennium was coming to an end. Clarke has been asked messianic and prophetic questions by scores of magazines and newspapers, few of which knew exactly what they, or he, were talking about.

So here is a selective compendium of things he was asked, and his answers. It's interesting to see how wrong he was-and how often right.

When will an ordinary person be able to buy a ride on the space shuttle?
By 1995. (The first "space tourist, US multimillionaire Greg Olsen, actually went up to the International Space Station on October 1, 2005, not on a space shuttle but on the Soyuz spacecraft no 217, or Soyuz TMA-7.)

Which of the following high-tech birthing techniques will be most prevalent in the year 2000: in-vitro fertilisation; surrogate mothering; cryogenics (embryo freezing); choosing the baby's sex.
In-vitro fertilisation (and he's right).

If sex selection becomes reliable, which of these alternatives will 21st century parents choose: a majority of boys; a majority of girls; 50-50.
A majority of boys. (He's probably right — but Clarke would be jailed for saying so in India today.)

In the coming years, which one chore will people come to rely on their home robot to accomplish the most: housecleaning; cooking; laundering; serving as a burglar alarm; teaching children; acting as pet or companion.
Housecleaning. (Well, pick a straw: as matters stand, ASIMO, Honda's humanoid robot, only climbs stairs, dances, responds to some voice commands, shakes your hands, and manages — just about — not to keel over. Another non-humanoid robot is a vacuum cleaner with the brain of a flea. Another pea brain can mow your lawn.)

What percentage of the US labour force will work at home via modem in 2000: 1 per cent; 5 per cent; 10 per cent; 25 per cent; 50 per cent; 75 per cent.
Ten per cent. (Dead wrong. It was between answers no 3 and 4.)

By 2010, how many years will you be able to add to your life with life-extension drugs and techniques: none; 1-3; 5; 10; 20; over 25.
None. (Probably wrong. The growth rate of biogenetics has overtaken the doubling once in 18 months growth rate of computer space and speed, so the next generation will most likely live to be 150 years old and beyond.)

Which of the following planets will humans have walked on by 2050: Mars; Venus; Jupiter; Saturn; none.
Mars. (That was a trick question: Jupiter and Saturn do not have solid surfaces.)

When will a universally-accepted Grand Unification Theory - which unites the electromagnetic, gravitational, strong, and weak nuclear forces of energy under one principle - be discovered: 1190-2000; 2001-2010; 2011-2020; beyond 2020; never.
Beyond 2020.

Which of these diseases will be eradicated by 2000: lung cancer; herpes; leprosy; AIDS; Alzheimer's; hepatitis; none of the above.
None of the above. (Again, I repeat my earlier statement about biogenetics.)

Name the most common global energy source in the next century.
Oil. (Great. More holy smoke.)

Among women, Blacks, Jews and Hispanics, which group will first have a member elected president of the US?
Women.

Which will best characterise Russian-US relations: widespread cooperation; a wary détente; a continued build-up of weapons, but no aggression; nuclear war only in space; nuclear war in space and on Earth.
Widespread cooperation…(It's actually the second answer that's the closest.)

Which living alternative will be most in use by the greatest number of people by 2050: underground communities; underwater communities; space colonies; orbiting spacecraft.
Underground communities. (There's plenty of subterranean-city testing going on, particularly in Japan.)

By 2000, what will the shuttle be used mostly for: scientific experiments and satellite repair; routine passenger transportation to a space station; cargo transportation to a space station or moon colony; all of the above; the shuttle will no longer be used.
For routine passenger transportation.

By 2010, which event will have occurred: a computer will defeat a chess grandmaster; a major earthquake will ravage the California coastline; terra-forming will have begun on Mars; genetically engineered food will have virtually eliminated hunger in Africa and the Third World.
A computer will defeat a chess grandmaster. (Right on — on May 4, 1997, the IBM computer Deep Blue drew even in its match against Garry Kasparov, winning the second of their six games); a major earthquake will ravage the California coastline. (No such luck —they're still soaking up the sun.)

Can we expect a vaccine for the common cold in 30 years?
Yes. (Now, where's that tissue?)

Which will come first: a cloned man; a bionic man; a 150-year-old man; a self-replicating robot.
A self-replicating robot. (The Terminator series apart, tiny von Neumann machines that make more of their kind from scratch have already been created in labs.)

Which city will be the most polluted on Earth by the turn of the century: New York; Los Angeles; Tokyo; Bangkok; Mexico City; Cairo; Sao Paulo.
Cairo. (Nope, it was Mexico City. And it was surprising that India did not find a mention, considering that it has three of the world's 10 most polluted cities: Delhi, Mumbai and Chennai.)

A so-called greenhouse effect will cause extensive damage to coastal areas within the next 40 years.
False. (Wrong. The polar icecaps are already shrinking, ship owners are thinking of opening up, till recently frozen far north sea lanes, oil barons are considering drilling the polar seabed, much of Alaska is already sludge.)

Will humans be living on the moon 50 years (2019) after Neil Armstrong gingerly stepped on it?
Yes.

What would a 21st century person say is the greatest invention or discovery of the 20th century: computer; theory of relativity; polio vaccine; splitting the atom; television; satellite.
Computer. (Feel free to disagree - I do.)

What is the most difficult challenge facing humankind in the 21st century: alleviating world hunger; reducing or eliminating nuclear weapons; finding alternative energy sources to replenish depleted reserves; stabilising world population; colonising outer space?
Reducing or eliminating nuclear weapons. (Right: the US has 30,000-odd workable nuclear weapons, the former Soviet Union collectively has about the same in various stages of insecurity, disintegration and combat-readiness — and some have simply disappeared into the arms black market, selling for up to US$ 40 million each. They'll smoke us non-combatants out yet.)

This is Arthur C Clarke at his most prescient - and you can see that he's wrong most of the time. So, is the future predictable? Do you see an Edenic utopia ahead or a dark, noir, misanthropic dystopia? Clarke never thought of Francis Fukuyama's The End of History and the Last Man; but neither did he think of Samuel Huntington's Clash of Civilisations. I wait for the future with bated breath, but it probably won't be what my breath is bated for