BJP’s Gujarat victory gives relief to Chauhan

The BJP’s Gujarat victory has come as a shot in the arm for the Shivraj Singh Chauhan government. The Congress is yet to get its act together and Uma Bharati is sulking yet again

By N D Sharma

Narendra Modi’s impressive victory in the Gujarat assembly elections has, predictably, depressed the Congress in Madhya Pradesh and rejuvenated the BJP which was down in the dumps after the recent by-elections in the state. Chief Minister Shivraj Singh Chauhan has reason to be particularly happy. The BJP’s performance in Gujarat has decisively warded off the ‘danger’ of Uma Bharati’s immediate return to the folds of the party. Chauhan literally trembles at the mention of Uma Bharati who invariably refers to him contemptuously as bacha-chor (child-lifter) for having ‘usurped’ the state government which the sadhvi regards as her own ‘child’.

For Chauhan, warding off the sadhvi’s influence has not been his only headache. He was, along with State BJP president Narendra Singh Tamar, at the receiving end duringt the state BJP’s prabandh samiti (management committee) meeting convened to discuss the reasons for the BJP defeat in the recent by-elections. The poor performance of his government and grave corruption charges against the BJP leaders were cited as the main factors for the BJP’s miserable showing. The BJP has lost four by-elections in succession – for three assembly seats and in one Lok Sabha constituency -- all of which were held by the BJP.

The party had barely recovered from the loss of the Shivpuri and Lanji assembly seats when by-elections became due in the Khargone Lok Sabha and Sanver assembly constituencies. The latter had fallen vacant following the death of Prakash Sonkar, a member of Chauhan’s council of ministers, who had won from Sanver no less than eight times. The Khargone by-election was a consequence of the disqualification of Krishna Murari Moghe for holding an office of profit. Like Sanver, Khargone used to be a BJP stronghold, having returned a Congress candidate only once since 1984.

Arun Yadav of the Congress, who was new to electoral politics, defeated Moghe (fielded by the BJP once again) by a margin that was more than double that of Moghe’s victory margin in 2004. In fact, no winner in Khargone had, since 1980, been able to attain a victory margin of one lakh against Arun’s margin of over 1,18,000. He registered a decisive victory in all the eight assembly segments of the Khargone Lok Sabha constituency; seven of the eight assembly seats have sitting BJP MLAs.

The disenchantment of the people with the ruling party is all too evident. BJP MLAs have not been allowed to enter villages and have been publicly accused of corruption. Chauhan, who spent several days in the constituency, was greeted with the slogans relating to the dumper scam involving his wife Sadhana Singh and himself. The dumper scam, in fact, dominated the Congress campaign in Khargone.

The vote in Khargone and Sanver was more against the BJP than in favour of the Congress which hardly exists as a credible organisation in Madhya Pradesh. Subhash Yadav has been the PCC chief for four years. There is no other office-bearer of the PCC in MP but some two dozen party spokesmen who often work at cross-purposes with one another. Subhash is not even on talking terms with the Leader of the Opposition in the assembly, Jamuna Devi. His relations with AICC general secretary and former chief minister Digvijay Singh can be gauged from the fact that he served a show cause notice served on a Congress leader of Mandsaur district for inviting Singh to a private function “without permission”. Earlier, when Digvijay Singh and Jamuna Devi had decided to launch a statewide campaign to expose the corruption in the Chauhan government, Subhash Yadav had put his foot down and refused to “grant” his permission.

That Subhash Yadav, with his haughty style and his not-so-clean image as former minister and leaders of cooperatives, would be a liability for the Congress became apparent after he promoted the entry of his son, Arun Yadav, into the state’s electroal politics. The son ensured that his father’s photograph was not included on campaign posters and he even pleaded with aggrieved Congress leaders of the area not to turn against him because of the acts of omission and commission of his father. Arun said he should be judged only on the basis of the work he has done for his constituency.

While the Congress organisation in MP is in shambles, the people of the statre seem to be finding hope in a young leader like Jyotiraditya Scindia, MP from Guna, who has started spending more and more time in the state. Besides inheriting his father’s legacy, his track record is without blemish and he clearly inspires clnfidence amlng large sections of the electorate, especially the youth.

The Congress victories in Shivpuri, Sanver and Khargone could be attributed to his hard work. Lanji was left to Union Commerce Minister Kamal Nath and the Congress candidate there was relegated to the third position after those of the Samajwadi Party and the BJP.

While the BJP has started worrying about the assembly elections that are due in November 2008, as it transpired during the deliberations at the prabandh samiti, the Congress is yet to get its act together. Every Congress supporter is hoping that the presence of Sonia Gandhi and Rahul Gandhi would work miracles for the party. But the BJP’s stunning victory in Gujarat has dampened their enthusiasm considerably. That the Congress in the state was shocked by the electoral outcome in Gujarat can be ascertained from the fact that the party forgot to announce its ‘dumper satyagraha’ programme that was supposed to have been launched across the state. As far as the Congress is concerned, the euphoria generated by the Khargone and Sanver by-election victories seems to have evaporated.

A section of BJP leaders in MP, including Pyarelal Khandelwal, Thavarchand Gehlot and Faggan Singh Kulaste, feels that the party cannot hope to win the next year’s elections without major changes in the government and in the party organisation. The BJP’s central leadership is yet to take stock of the anti-incumbency sentiments prevailing in the state. There is speculation that Chauhan may suggest early elections, say, in April or May. If this suggestion is accepted, Chauhan may save his seat as the party may not consider replacing him with a new leader who will take time to take charge.

Meanwhile, it appears to be the end of the road for Uma Bharati. After walking out of the BJP Legislature Party meeting two years ago where Chauhan, and not she, was elected state party leader, she fretted, fumed and abused the BJP leaders. Thereafter, the sadhvi was expelled from the BJP and formed her onw outfit, Bharatiya Jana Shakti, 20 months ago. On the eve of the Gujarat elections, she lost control over her second ‘child’ as well, for which she has nobody to blame but herself and her guru Visveshtiratha Swami of Pejavaradhokshaja Mutt.

Her candidates were nowhere in the picture in Gujarat. She has been publicly snubbed by her one-time ardent supporter Prahlad Patel, who had stood by her the day she was thrown out of the BJP. In a fit of depression, she retired to Onkareshwar, a holy place in the Malwa region of the state. Many of her supporters have left her ansd returned to the folds of the BJP. Even the few that remain with her have become wary of her tantrums.

The sadhvi, harassed by then chief minister Sunderlal Patwa and having failed to persuade Govindacharya to marry her, had rushed to Amarkantak to take sanyas in 1993. This time round in 2007, Uma Bharati seems to have decided to take sanyas from her earlier sanyas. As a first step towards reverting to grihastha-ashram, she has formally adopted her granddaughter Akshara, who is the daughter of her niece Vibhuti. Her first ‘child’ was taken away from her. Her second ‘child’ is in pretty bad shape. Akshara is now her only hope.