Reverberations of democracy

The Iraqi elections may trigger latent aspirations in the entire Arab-Islamic world, and prudent ethics suggest that it is time India aided the rebuilding of Iraq's nascent democratic bodies, says C Uday Bhaskar

Thursday, December 15, 2005, may well be recalled in the future as the day when the tectonic plates, which supported the socio-political and religious order that underpinned the Arab-Islamic world, moved ever so slightly—but with long-term implications. The long-awaited national elections were held in Iraq on December 15. While the final results were still awaited at the time of writing, it is evident that the majority Shia population, represented by a coalition of parties under the banner of the United Iraqi Alliance, will emerge as the single largest faction.

This will be the first time that the Arab Shias will be so empowered and the reverberations have the potential to gather momentum, like the tsunami of December 2004 that left a different trail in other parts of Asia. The distinctive nature of what has unfolded lies in both the nature of the victory—through the electoral process that was as free and fair as it could be under the circumstances—and the identity of the victor, the Shias who had been oppressed for centuries, beginning with the Ottoman rule. This is not to suggest that Iraq will return to the peace and stability that has eluded it for years. The elections will lead to an inevitable jostling for power and the sharing of oil resources among the emergent Shias, the Sunnis, who have been relegated to third place, and the Kurds, who will now have their first heady taste of political identity and related autonomy. More turbulence is in store in the months ahead for the extended region—now christened the Greater Middle East by the Bush team—as also for Iraq.

This jostling for power in Iraq and the salience accorded to the ballot—as opposed to the bullet and brute force—has caused grave concern in the region. It may be recalled that on February 7, 2004—the day the UN returned to Iraq—a confidential report prepared by the Arab League referred to fears within Arab states and their ruling elites (uniformly non-Shias and Sunnis, in the main) that direct elections in Iraq could lead to the emergence of Shia rule along with considerable autonomy to the Kurds. And that this, in turn, could catalyse these minorities differently scattered within the extended region, including Turkey.

This forecast has proved to be accurate so far: but will the attendant anxiety also come true? Democratic aspirations cannot be contained beyond a point—as most states that have come out of long periods of colonial or authoritarian rule are well aware—and adjacent Iran is currently going through its own throes between the liberals and the conservative Shias. Iraqi elections may trigger latent aspirations in the entire Arab-Islamic world from Maghreb and, perhaps, even Pakistan. Within Iraq, these elections mark the beginning of a long contestation. Physical security in Iraq is still fragile and there are many pockets of fierce Sunni resistance that combines a hatred for the US and anger with a regime they see as puppets. Many provisions in the new Iraqi constitution endorsed in October need to be ironed out through democratic debate in the fledgling parliament. These include contentious issues such as the degree of federalism (most applicable to the Kurds), the ratio of oil revenue sharing, and the manner in which the Sunnis and the former Ba’ath party cadres will be rehabilitated in a Shia-led Iraq. None of these will be easy. And, to compound matters, there also exists bitter rivalry within the Shia factions, particularly the militias owing allegiance to the younger Shia clerics led by Muqtada al-Sadr and the older Ayatollahs. A secular Shia democracy is a politico-theological conundrum, and if Iran, with its Persian ethnicity, is one example, an Arab variant of the same is sui generis.

Yet, there is very positive symbolism in the events of December 15. Participative democracy is the ideal that impelled the Bush team and while the misinformation and the duplicity that accompanied the US military action is one part of the story—the historic enormity of what is on the anvil merits deep reflection. The US now appears contrite about the means it deployed to affect regime change but the ultimate end of ushering in a rhythm change in Iraq and the ‘Greater Middle East’ is a normative goal. Realpolitik and prudent ethics suggest that it is time for India to get engaged in the rebuilding of Iraq's nascent democratic institutions.