New dispensation, new empowerment
The BSP’s decisive Dalit victory brought along with it equally decisive losses for all the other
parties in the fray. Did it ramp up casteism, too?
There has been a clear verdict in the UP Assembly elections. This is the first time since 1991 that a single party, the Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP), has won an absolute majority. This is welcome to the extent that there is no need for a government being formed with opportunist alliances and defections. BSP leader Mayawati had become the chief minister on three occasions earlier after coming to an understanding with the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP).
These alliances between the BSP, a party that represents the Dalits, and the BJP were retrogressive in that the communal Hindutva party sought to maintain itself in power even though it had begun to lose ground after the communal peaking of 1991-92.
Apart from the BSP’s victory, the most notable feature of the UP election results is the major setback for the BJP, which had won 88 seats and polled 20.12 per cent in 2002; it has come down to 50 seats and 16.9 per cent of the vote. The BJP, after the Punjab and Uttarakhand elections began nurturing hopes that it would achieve a similar success in UP. This would have set the stage for its comeback at the national level.
The BJP’s debacle has resulted in its getting the lowest number of seats since 1989. In the past three years, in a series of by-elections held in the state, the BJP lost its deposits in a majority of the seats it contested.
The SP had to fight against big odds. The three-year record of the Mulayam Singh government evoked widespread discontent mainly due to the lawlessness and patronage of criminal activities by elements within the SP. But the SP has been able to retain its electoral base even though it lost in terms of seats, getting only 97. In percentage terms, the SP got 25.45 per cent of the vote as compared to 25.13 in 2002.
As for the SP leadership, without a sound socioeconomic programme addressing the needs of the peasants and the rural poor, artisans, weavers and the working class, the SP cannot rally wider support by merely relying on caste equations.
The Congress party, which has been marginalised in the state in the past two decades, had hoped to revive its electoral base and increase its seats. Rahul Gandhi’s campaign was pegged as the instrument for this revival. But the Congress’s decline remains a reality.
The performance of the BJP and the Congress in the biggest state of the country has once again emphatically debunked talk about the emergence of a two-party system in the country. The UP results are an assertion that the multi-party system is a reality.
The Left is not represented in the new Assembly. In the previous Assembly elections, only the CPI(M) had won two seats. This time the party lost both. The CPI won nothing. This is the first time that the communists have not been represented in the Assembly since 1952. It is misleading to talk of caste barriers being broken down, as done by the English language media, pointing to the electoral success of the BSP.
The success of the BSP lies in putting together a caste coalition utilising the solid base of the Dalits. This was possible not by breaking down caste identities but by nurturing and appealing to caste blocs to come together for mutual interests.
The BSP victory has a two-fold aspect. The first is the continuing appeal of Dalit empowerment that the BSP symbolises. The second is the more systematic spread of caste as a political mobilisation tool, overriding other factors. It is this latter feature which threatens to overwhelm the positive features of the former. |
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One victory, 20
per cent turncoats
Mayawati used soft Hindutva, but old shibboleths such as a monolithic Muslim votebank were demolished—and people changed sides rapidly.
The rich political dividends Mayawati reaped focusing on Hindu social engineering is a marvellous departure from the hackneyed political discourse of the Hindi heartland. This will make many of India’s Muslim-obsessed politicians and their Mandal theoreticians rethink. The BSP’s gains are significant. For the first time in her political career, Mayawati played a leveller and social harmoniser. Her campaign was largely Hindu-centric.
The BJP, and to some extent the BSP, were the only ones that did not anchor their campaign entirely on Muslim-specific manifesto. And the BSP success in the poll marks a paradigm shift in UP politics. Sonia Gandhi’s special appeal to maulavis and Rahul Gandhi’s penitence in Deoband did not ensure the Muslim vote for the Congress.
The collective anger of the poor and the Hindu is in full play. For the BJP, it is a setback. It has touched its lowest ever. For the SP and the Congress, it is total rout.
Like Indira Gandhi, on an altogether different format in the 1980s, Mayawati subtly advanced a soft Hindutva line, appealing to the so-called Manuwadis. With all parties diluting their USP, and no party in a position to claim a moral high ground, the new experiment impacted a churning. Once she realised the limit of the Dalit-Muslim vote bank, the earlier gamut of the BSP idea, she made a conscious change.
If the UPA has any political morality left, it should quit. The Congress is the biggest loser. The launch of Rahul Gandhi as the future of the party has also proved a damp squib. The Samajwadi Party suffered equally for its caste and communal approach, shrinking its voter appeal. The biggest problem for Mulayam Singh was the image that he protected all thugs, criminals and desperados. Except the psephologists, any casual visitor to Uttar Pradesh could see the cycle had both the tyres punctured.
The BJP losses might have come as a surprise for the party leadership. In the present poll, the party has not retained its base. New social groups, particularly the sections that went with either the BSP or the SP, rooted for the BJP this time. But the traditional vote went to Mayawati. This should worry the party. Kalyan Singh’s leadership, along with the fact that he hailed from the state, did not help. An aggressive Hindutva approach would have ensured greater success. But the party was extremely restrained. The focus was more on the UPA’s obsessive vote bank politics.
The Uttar Pradesh election busted many myths. The most important and politically significant is that the Muslims decided the outcome in the state. True. There is a 15-20 per cent vote share of the Muslims in most UP constituencies. But the mistake promoted by political pundits is that they vote en bloc and against the BJP to make the SP victorious. This round in UP proved that this is not the case. Muslims, too, behave like the rest of the country: they have their caste and religious divide, Shias and Sunnis, upper caste and Dalit, rich and poor, fanatic and liberal.
The Indian Muslim has a political approach just as any other Indian, and attempts to emotionally blackmail his allegiance raising extraterritorial issues will not pay off. Intriguingly, the Congress campaign did not mention the UPA’s performance at the Centre. All the three of its star campaigners, Rahul Gandhi, Sonia Gandhi and Priyanka Vadra, relied entirely on their personal charm and family legacy. The party fought on a me, mummi, daddy, nani, parnana format.
Mulayam Singh prided himself the champion of crass casteist, communal and criminal segments in UP politics. But he had nothing new to offer. Except for the BJP, every other party ran a personalised campaign. Like the 19th century warlords of China, they quarreled to preserve their turf. It did not turn bloody because of the Election Commission. This is the first poll in UP that had no bloodshed.
As for the BSP, maya and Maya memsaheb completed the circuit. The Bahujan samaj had the largest number of crorepatis in the fray. But the BSP also had catchy slogans, and its lustrous blitzkrieg on social empowerment worked.
But there was again no hangover of ideology: every political party averaged 20 per cent turncoats. In many places, the Congress found deserters from Mahant Adityanath and the BJP its most promising candidates. So much for its antipathy to the BJP brand of politics. |
