Two war games:
return of a bipolar world?

The recent India-US-Japan-Australia-Singapore naval exercise off the Andamans was preceded by the world’s biggest China-Russia-Tajikistan-Kazakhstan military and air force war games in the Gobi desert in Central Asia.

By Suvrokamal Dutta

Thirty-four ships and submarines from five nations— India, the US, Japan, Australia and Singapore—entered into a six-day exercise, about 100 nautical miles off the Andaman archipelago, even after vehement opposition from the Indian Left parties. Some analysts say the war games, named the “Malabar Exercise”, are an attempt by the participating nations to contain China's growing power in the Asia-Pacific. The nations deny this, of course, but Beijing has already expressed its concerns.

This was the 13th Malabar naval exercise that involved India and the US. The earlier ones had taken place on India’s western coast along the Arabian Sea. This, however, is the first time that five nations were involved, and that too along the eastern coast of India in the Bay of Bengal. What is important was the participation of Japan and Australia, both of which have been natural allies of the US for decades now. This ‘ganging up’ has been causing concern within the Chinese political circles for a while now. Earlier, too, Beijing had issued a demarche to India, the US, Australia and Japan when these five nations had confabulated on the sidelines of the ASEAN forum meeting at Manila recently.

China concerns are hardly without any reason, if one were to look into the nature of the naval exercise and the kind of vessels that were put to use. The Malabar Exercise in the international waters between Vishakhapatnam and the Andaman and Nicobar Islands mobilised 26 warships and involved two aircraft carriers from the US and one from India, hundreds of military aircraft, destroyers, frigates and submarines. “This will perhaps be the biggest ever peace-time joint naval exercise in Asia. The ships and submarines would take part in anti-piracy manoeuvres, reconnaissance and rescue missions and improve ways of working together” Indian Navy spokesperson Captain Vinay Garg had said.

The USS Nimitz and the USS Kitty Hawk of the US Pacific fleet, which also included a nuclear submarine, the USS I, were part of the naval drill. India’s aircraft carrier, the INS Viraat, besides maritime Jaguar and Sea Harrier aircraft, Tu-142 surveillance planes, Delhi and Kashin class destroyers, Godavari and Brahmaputra class guided missile frigates, and a submarine
of German origin were also part of the exercise.

The naval exercise took place after hectic parleys between the participant nations. There has lately been talk of the formation of a four-cornered axis between India, Japan, Australia and the US with regard to strategic and economic cooperation in the Asia-Pacific in order to balance the power equation in this part of the world. Although its purpose is vehemently denied by India, the quadrilateral axis is supposed to contain the disturbing rise of Chinese influence of China in East Asia and the ASEAN. The latter has, in fact, given an implicit green signal to the axis by verbally
welcoming such a formation.

If the Bush Administration has spoken of an expanded Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC)—which should include India—Japan has advocated the idea of the quadrilateral axis. India has welcomed both ideas wholeheartedly. Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, who resigned recently following his visit to India, proposed a new four-way framework for
strategic dialogue between Japan, India, Australia and the US, which he called the “Wider Asia”. Australian Prime Minister John Howard has advocated greater cooperation between India, Japan and Australia to maintain a balance in this part of the world.

Ties between the five nations have not only been robust in the past couple of years, they have been expanding rapidly. At present, Japan is India’s fifth major trading partner; it had a share of 3.1 per cent in India’s total exports and imports in 2003-04. Two-way trade between India and Australia in goods totalled US$ 7.3 billion in 2004-05, with India becoming Australia’s 12th largest merchandise trading partner. Merchandise exports from India to the US grew by 21.4 per cent in 2002 compared to 2001, rising from US$ 9.74 billion to US$ 11.82 billion. This rose to further to US$ 20.01 billion in 2005-06.

During Shinzo Abe’s recent visit to New Delhi recently, he had again strongly advocated a quadrilateral formation. The naval war games need to be seen in the context of this formation. Asia has recently seen two massive international military exercises. A few weeks ago, the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (CSO) organised the world’s largest military and air force war games in the Gobi desert in Central Asia, with China, Russia, Tajikistan and Kazakhstan participating in it. After the Malabar Exercise, it is likely that the Bay of Bengal became the arena of the world’s largest naval exercise. What come from such exercises are the emerging contours of two power blocs in the post-Cold War era, one led by Russia and China under the aegis of the SCO, and the other by the US. What needs to be seen is how these two axes unfold in the future. With the stability of the United Progressive Alliance government already in doubt because of pressure from the Indian Left to scuttle the India-US civilian nuclear deal, the quadrilateral axis could go either way.

But whatever the future of the government in New Delhi, India needs to keep in mind that it can go in for such an axis with the US only at the considerable cost of alienating a time-tested friend, Russia. At the same time, however, India cannot afford to have an economically and militarily hostile China banging at the subcontinent’s doorstep. Nor, indeed, can China afford to have a resurgent and equally hostile India. This is a new, emerging coalition geopolitics at play.