Ready, steady, don’t go

The Ambika Soni-Hansraj Bhardwaj blunder on Ram Sethu has pushed the Congress on the backfoot; on the other hand the squabbling and issueless BJP has suddenly come back to life and is all charged up. Snap polls, a certainty only a couple of weeks back, appear a little distant now

By Sanjeev Acharya

A Government's stability is one thing and its confidence another. A government needs stability to govern and confidence to rule. After battling the Left and blundering on the Ram Sethu affidavit the Manmohan Singh led UPA government at the centre has just about managed to hold on to stability at the cost of confidence.

Until a couple of weeks ago the Congress party was not averse to snap polls. During the midst of the aggressive posturing against the Left on the Nuclear Deal issue the Congress political managers exuded confidence and showed no discomfort at the sign of early polls. In fact they were sure that if the Left were to withdraw support they would be able to call for elections and return with a sure mandate. The ruling party was confident that if the Left were to pull down the government then the accruing sympathy votes and the business class and middle class anger vis-à-vis the Left would help it gain, if not a majority, then at least a larger number of seats in Parliament.

However, now as far as the Congress is concerned the picture is very different. The prospect of an early election, though appearing a little distant now, continues to loom on the horizon. But the confidence has all but fizzed out of the party. The Bharatiya Janata Party’s initial success at being able to give a political spin to the emotive Ram Sethu issue has diluted the possible benefits that the Congress was hoping to draw on from its fight with the Left on the nuclear deal issue. The Congress leadership is now finding it difficult to formulate a strategy for the elections in the event the Left withdraws support to the UPA government.

Early polls seems to be imminent now after the Communist Party (CPM) veteran Jyoti Basu ruled out any compromise on the Left’s opposition to the US-India nuclear deal. The BJP which has been watching the political developments very carefully has pulled out all the stops to revive Hindutva by stepping up its offensive on the Ram Setu issue and dubbing the Sachar Committee report as a 'charter for social divisiveness' at its National Executive meeting held in Bhopal.
“The affidavit goofup over Ram Sethu has come as a major setback for us. It is going to affect our prospects badly,” admitted a general secretary of the Congress party. He also agreed to the fact that the BJP cashing in on the controversy, and Tamil Nadu Chief Minister M. Karunanidhi's aggressive comments against Lord Ram have added fuel to the fire and the Congress finds itself on the back foot. According to highly placed sources in the party, the BJP’s decision to launch a campaign over Ram's existence being questioned in the government's controversial affidavit in the Supreme Court appears to have shattered the earlier confidence of the Congress.

One of the strategists of the Congress party, on condition of anonymity admitted that party chief Sonia Gandhi's hurried intervention leading to the withdrawal of the Archaeological Survey of India (ASI) affidavit was not enough. Sonia Gandhi should have taken a stronger and more decisive step for damage control such as the dismissal of the culprit officers or irresponsible ministers, be it Law Minister H.R. Bharadwaj or tourism and culture minister Ambika Soni. That would have sent an unambiguous message and possibly limited the advantage gained by the Sangh Parivar.

The Congress leadership seemingly failed to guage the political fallout of its affidavit gaffe.
The leadership, especially party president Sonia Gandhi, was misled by a section of strategists and advisors. Ms Gandhi’s advisors, who are supposed to act as eyes and ears of the "high command", kept her in dark about the fast-changing ground realities after the appaling affidavit in which in spite of the fact that there was no need to mention Ram, his very existence was questioned..
Settling factional scores and hierarchical one-upmanship are the topmost priorities of the so-called number two, three or four in the Congress high command. These very advisors had tried to convince Sonia Gandhi that it was the right time to plunge into elections even though she was not sure about the prospects of the Congress-led UPA. Now the rapid developments over the past few days over the Ram Sethu issue has left the Congress confused. Neither government nor the party organization is prepared either to handle the crisis to avoid the fall of the government or to postpone the polls until the political climate returns to being more conducive to a Congress and UPA victory.

'We were ready for elections till the other day. But now we need some time to assess the situation,” a minister in Prime Minister Manmohan Singh's council of ministers admitted. He also confided that the party strategists are clueless about next round of politics. Most of the party stalwarts were busy taking a keen interest in the much-hyped appointment of the heir apparent Rahul Gandhi in the Congress party instead of trying to handle the current political crisis.

Political pundits are predicting the Lok Sabha polls in May next year. Keeping that possibility in mind, all the political parties have begun their preparations to face the electorate. The BJP seems ahead of all others in this regard. The saffron party is happy that UPA has provided on a platter some very exciting issues like Ram Sethu, an affidavit saying that there is no historical proof of the existence of Lord Ram, and that he is not real. Another issue in the party’s political kitty is the Sachar panel's recommendations for Muslims. The UPA government’s attempts to offer sops to Muslims based on the recommendations of the Sachar committee’s is being cited by the party as yet another proof of the Congress’ policy of minority appeasement.

But all is not well with the BJP. An upbeat mood, enthusiastic cadre and an active RSS network may not be enough to fulfil the dream of returning to power at the Centre. The BJP's main strategists are concerned about mainly three issues. Foremost issue of concern is the infighting within the party. There are sharp differences in the central leadership and also in the states like Gujarat and Rajasthan. Secondly, party organization is very weak in Uttar Pradesh, West Bengal, Kerala and Tamil Nadu. After yet another defeat in its cow belt bastion - Uttar Pradesh - in the last assembly elections, the BJP is unsure that its Hindutva card would help it reap a good electoral harvest in the era of hardened caste politics. The hard truth is that after Mayawati and Mulayam Singh Yadav, there is very little room for anyone else in Uttar Pradesh politics.

The BJP is also afraid of Uma Bharti's Bhartiya Jana Shakti Party which may mar its prospects in the Hindi heartland. In Gujarat, Narendra Modi’s high-handed ways have alienated the powerful Patel lobby. This may spoil the party’s performance in the assembly elections scheduled at the end of the current year.

The question of who will be projected as the BJP-led NDA's prime ministerial candidate in the event of parliamentary elections is also not clear. It is being said in the party circles that given his ill health, Atal Behari Vajpayee will probably not be able to lead the party. And it is an open secret that many BJP leaders and a section of the RSS does not want Advani to be projected as the prime ministerial candidate.

The BJP can also expect trouble from its allies in the NDA. Telugu Desam leader Chandra Babu Naidu and Trinamul Congress leader Mamata Banerjee have already begun to drift away from the BJP.

On the other hand, the Left parties, who may become the reason for causing polls, are themselves not very sure about their capability to retain their present strength in the Lok Sabha. The left is caught in a Catch-22 situation, where they repeatedly threaten to pulling the plug, but they don’t see a great advantage in doing so. Given a choice, they would prefer not to cause elections.
One of their leaders says: “The Congress is likely to get a setback in Gujarat as the Ram Sethu issue has strengthened (Chief Minister) Narendra Modi's chances. Modi victory may puncture Congress’ electoral bravado.”

Realising that the game me be slipping out of its hands – with the Left pulling down the government and the BJP riding yet another Ram wave – the Congress party is started fire-fighting. After having messed up with a politically suicidal affidavit, the Congress strategists are now busy scouting for number to save the government in the event of the Left pullout.

Congress leaders are in touch with Mayawati and Mamata Bannerjee to seek their help for the survival of the government. Whether Mayawati, who has tasted unprecedent victory after cobbling together a new coalition in Uttar Pradesh, would oblige the Congress is yet to be seen. Mayawati wants to try her new formula in other states where elections are due.

Mayawati and Mulayam Singh Yadav are the key players in the Hindi heartland. Though Mulayam's party is in a state of shock due to the magnitude of their defeat in UP, it is slowly gearing up again to regain its position in the state. Mulayam has gone back with the Communists so far as national politics is concerned.

As of now, except for BSP, BJP, and the Janata Dal (United) whose chief minister Nitish Kumar has brought some semblance of governance back in Bihar, no political party wants snap polls.
For the BJP, it is a question of survival as it has lost its credibility in the past on the issues related to hardcore Hindutva. Now is the time for them to re-ignite Hindutva in the name of Ram. But for how long will they be able to sustain this emotive drive is unsure. Because in politics even one day is too long.

The Congress electoral hopes were based primarily on the sympathy they can get for sacrificing their government for ‘Bijli aur Pani’ benefits that will flow from the successful conclusion of the US-India nuclear deal. Rahul Gandhi’s apeal amomg the young voters is expected to make a winning combination with the sympathy wave.

But the emergence, yet again, of Ram wave, has thrown a spanner in the Congress work.
Party leaders are now hopeful that the younger generation, which is a substantial chunk of the electorate – nearly 70 per cent – will not get swayed by emotive and divisive issues and would vote in favour of a party having a constructive agenda. By projecting Rahul Gandhi, and the Nuclear deal, Congress hopes to garner the support of younger voters of the country.

The next elections will decide whether the generation next accepts the emotional and regressive pulls of the Right or chooses the government on the issues of development and progress.